How to Prepare for One Million Milwaukeeans
How to Prepare for One Million Milwaukeeans
Questions, mindsets, and action steps for Milwaukee to achieve its ambitious target.
Milwaukee is a city on the rise. The NBA’s Bucks and MLB’s Brewers have both ascended to varying levels of prominence over the last decade, the former has built a new stadium and entertainment district, and the city itself was named a top tourist destination by National Geographic last Fall.
What’s next on the horizon? If Mayor Cavalier Johnson has his way, a major population boom.
The mayor has said he seeks to grow Milwaukee to a total of one million residents, a stark increase from the city’s present approximate 577,000.
So how do they get there in a way that leads to a thriving future? Let’s break it down:
Two Questions Milwaukee Must Answer
1. What Constitutes “One Million Residents?”
Mayor Johnson has said he wants Milwaukee to be “in the mix” with other fast-growing metropolitan areas like Nashville, Austin, and Phoenix. But while each of those cities has seen explosive growth over the last several years, a significant amount of that growth has been in the suburbs.
Early action steps by Major Johnson and the City of Milwaukee would suggest that MKE’s population growth goals are centered around reversing “white flight” and suburbanization. But keeping the answer to the question of “what constitutes one million Milwaukeeans?” will be critical if the city is to avoid falling into all the classic traps “it cities” fall into: caving to the loud minority that resists density, building the city center as a “consumer city” for suburban commuters, etc.
One million residents in Milwaukee County or the Greater Milwaukee Area looks far different from one million residents in Milwaukee proper, and the policies one would implement to achieve each outcome look vastly different.
2. Who Are You After?
Much like Question 1, the the answer to “who are you after?” can massively influence the way Milwaukee seeks to grow. Is the city seeking to jump in the race to the bottom and out-subsidize other growing metros to court major coastal corporate headquarters? Is it seeking to become one of the medical tourism capitals of the country? Does Milwaukee want to be the most family-friendly city in America, or the go-to destination for singles looking for a new adventure?
Of course, any politician or communications professional will say “yes” to some version of all of the above. Mayor Johnson laid out a version of his answer to the question on Twitter about a month ago:
Many policies can obviously be put in place that would actually accomplish many of these things at once. But where any city with ambition can get lost is in forgetting the less “flashy” residents it needs to thrive: service workers, construction workers, teachers, etc.
Many of the country’s hottest metros are currently with significant labor shortages, largely due to the fact there is simply not enough housing available at the necessary price point for those in less lucrative professions.
Considering how to not only create a housing market that retains Milwaukee’s existing labor force in these areas, but also attracts and creates (see below) additional professionals in these spaces, is far easier to do at the front end of a “growth moment” than the back end. Natural affordability can be a powerful tool to instigate population growth at the beginning of a city’s “moment,” but affordable home prices have a 5-7 year shelf life at the most if action isn’t taken preemptively.
Milwaukee (and the State of Wisconsin) Must Grow from a Position of Confidence
Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers recently proposed a renovation package for American Family Field (home of the Milwaukee Brewers) that included a property tax exemption for future development around the ballpark.
The proposal, while ultimately killed, was a classic example of political win chasing: Getting shovels in the ground to stack a resume item at the expense of future local finances.
A “ballpark district” (similar to what has been done surrounding Atlanta’s Truist Park, as well as Milwaukee’s own district surrounding Fiserv Forum) would bring some much-needed development to what is currently a lifeless sea of parking lots surrounding American Family Field. If the development doesn’t deliver property tax revenue for the city, however, any aesthetic benefits of the district would ultimately serve as window dressing for a financial boondoggle.
As Milwaukee chases its million-resident ambition, the state and city alike should resist the temptation to offer these kinds of future sweetheart deal for the sake of expediting growth. Strategic deployment of resources has its place, but that place cannot be in the form of gutting major future streams of revenue for a city that could be supporting nearly double its current population.
Milwaukee must seek to grow from a position of confidence; the city has more than enough to offer, and doesn’t need to bend over backwards to court investment and corporate HQs. Avoiding subsidy-driven courtship methods may result in “losing out” on some opportunities, but will ultimately leave the city in a better financial and economic position in the long haul.
Some Actions Milwaukee Can Take To Thrive
So what are some specific actions Milwaukee can take to not only achieve one million residents, but prepare to also thrive once it hits that total?
1. Get Redevelopment Around the Ballpark Right
Gov. Evers’ proposal had its problems. But the intention to see American Family Field serve as an anchor to a thriving mixed-use community (which is seemingly shared by the state, the city, and the Brewers) is a good one. The question is how to fund the stadium renovation and development in a way that is beneficial to both the city and state government.
The city is already studying the redevelopment potential of surface parking by the ballpark, and encouraging Komatsu Mining Corp. to work with the city to redevelop its old nearby headquarters site in a way that would support those efforts. But what will be vital to the success of any redevelopment is that it leans into the city’s efforts to build streets as “places for people,” and pulls incentive levers that don’t put the city’s future finances at risk.
The ballpark is currently on somewhat of an island, boxed in by highways and major roadways. But with Mitchell Boulevard Park, a VA hospital, and the Menomonee River all within potential walking distance with the proper infrastructure, the “bones” already exist for a thriving mixed-use neighborhood with major entertainment, a medical presence, and access to nature.
The area is ripe for becoming a hub of car-free or car-lite living with reliable public transportation to downtown, and change zoning codes to allow for smaller units to be developed will help ensure a local, reliable labor force for both American Family Field and other local restaurants and amenities.
Many major cities see their density decline almost immediately after stepping outside of the true “downtown.” Getting a ballpark district “right” would be a major step to helping Milwaukee set the tone required to generate the necessary buy-in it will need to densify more of the city in preparation for a major population influx.
2. Triple Down on Marketing Resources to Lower-Income Residents
The greatest fear any time a city starts to have a “moment” is gentrification and displacement. While some of this is practically unavoidable, anticipating and preparing for this threat can allow the Milwaukee to become a model for helping current low-income residents be a part of a city’s next chapter.
Most major cities have CDFIs, a local United Way chapter, and other resources that can serve older and lower-income residents, but those organizations tend to get relatively minimal attention and support from local governments apart from politicians showing up for photo-ops.
Even though the city is still at the beginning of its growth journey, now is the time for Milwaukee to be throwing maximum resources behind connecting local residents to organizations and programs that will help them not only secure stable work and housing, but get on an economic trajectory that will equip them to afford an inevitably more expensive city in the years to come.
3. Continue to Advance the Ball on Good Urbanism Practices
Mayor Johnson has said the right things when it comes to building a thriving, high-population city: he wants to tackle zoning and build people-centered streets. And as I highlighted above, there’s already signs that’s starting to happen.
The battle now is in continuing to execute: removing parking minimums, continuing to deliver on expanding transit access, upzoning single-family properties and neighborhoods, reducing minimum unit sizes, passing ADU legislation, etc.
These are all actions that are critical to get right early in the growth process. People don’t like change, and resistance and political noise will only increase as the city begins to see returns on its growth aims.
Any time a city sets a course for significant economic and population expansion, it enters a world of incredibly exciting possibilities. But time and time again, we seen political pressure and impatience derail promising starts and create economic and housing bubbles instead of "good bones” for a flourishing future.
Milwaukee has a chance to be different, if leaders can stay focused and disciplined. Can they set a new bar for effective urbanization?